The German courier, express and parcel (CEP) market grew only moderately last year and could stagnate this year due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic but should recover again next year, according to a new study released today.
Volumes could range between -1% and +1% this year after the coronavirus crisis intensified the previous trend towards strong B2C growth but negative B2B demand, the latest annual market study by researchers KE-Consult for the German CEP association BIEK showed.
However, BIEK chairman Marten Bosselmann underlined that CEP operators have proven they are ‘system-relevant’ by continuing to supply essential goods to many kinds of businesses as well as consumers over the last few months. Moreover, they had maintained their service quality and introduced innovative solutions in response to lockdown restrictions, he pointed out.
“The corona crisis shows that CEP services can be relied on. What’s more, they are essential for a secure supply across the country and are thus system-relevant. That applies for hospitals and laboratories just as much as consumers and the economy as a whole,” he commented.
But he emphasised to journalists at a press briefing: “We are not the winners of the corona crisis. We have proven that we can cope with crises.”
B2C booms but B2B slumps in corona crisis
The German CEP market has been significantly hit by the impact of coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions and economic effects, BIEK said. B2C parcel volumes are increasing rapidly as consumers buy more goods online and hit pre-Christmas levels in April. But B2B shipments have dropped significantly due to the ‘closedown’ of the economy to combat the pandemic, while international volumes have also declined due to the slump in trade.
BIEK presented three possible scenarios for how the German courier, express and parcels market could develop this year, ranging from a low ‘Keeping Up’ and a medium ‘Recovery’ to a higher ‘Long-term trends’. The first two scenarios assume an economic decline this year and then a recovery in 2021 followed by a return to long-term CEP market growth trends in 2022.
On this basis, BIEK predicted that the German market could see overall volume growth of between -1% and +1% this year. The domestic parcel market could grow between 1% and 4%, with B2C volumes up by 3.5% – 7% but B2B volumes down by 3% to 5%. Express and courier volumes could drop by between 5% and 7%, the association said.
More positively, looking ahead over a five-year period, BIEK said the market could return to annual growth rates of between 3.6% and 4.2% by 2024, depending on how the German economy recovers from the coronavirus impact.
Slower growth in 2019
The German CEP market already grew more moderately in 2019 than in recent years as the economy slowed but still hit new record levels, the CEP Market Study 2020 showed.
Overall volumes increased by 3.8% to 3.65 billion, compared to a 4.9% rise in 2018. Revenues improved by 4.4% to €21.3 billion, partly due to higher prices that pushed the average revenue per shipment up slightly to €5.83 on an industry-wide basis.
The parcel market again outgrew other segments, with volumes up by 4.2% and revenues up by 6% to €12.1 billion. Domestic volumes within Germany grew by 4.3% thanks to strong B2C growth while international volumes increased only 2.2% last year.
Within Germany, B2C parcel deliveries accelerated as strong e-commerce growth continued, with an 8.6% rise in volumes last year after a 7.4% increase in 2018.
But B2B parcel volumes dropped by 2.8% as the German economy weakened, production decreased in core markets such as automotive and machinery, and important trading partners increased protectionist policies.
Express and courier consignments increased by a moderate 2.1% last year due to weak demand trends. Volumes within Germany increased by 2.4% but international shipments virtually stagnated with a fractional 0.1% rise. Overall, the German express market reached revenues of €4.7 billion and the courier market of €4.5 billion last year, according to the study.
The CEP market study covers all operators in the market, including the BIEK members (DPD, GLS, GO, Hermes and UPS) and other players, such as DHL, FedEx/TNT and Amazon Logistics.
- CEP-Research will report on the BIEK press conference and CEP market study results in more detail tomorrow.
