The German courier, express and parcels industry expects stable volumes or slight growth in 2010after a tough year, senior managers said at an industry conference yesterday. Pressure on prices is
likely to continue, however.In a panel discussion at the annual CEP Congress in Cologne, Katja Herbst, DHL Parcel Germanysales manager, said B2B volumes will probably stabilise next year and perhaps even slightly grow,while B2C e-commerce shipments will continue to increase rapidly.
DHL will seek to deliver more than 90% of parcels on a next-day basis next year and offer asame-day delivery service with Amazon with evening deliveries to Packstations, Herbst said. Butdespite high customer acceptance a trial evening home delivery service will not be rolled outnationwide due to the high production costs, she confirmed.
Thomas Preuss, DPD Germany sales & marketing director, said: “We are convinced or veryoptimistic that we have reached the bottom level and there will perhaps be some growth next year.”But parcel prices are “unhealthily” under pressure at present, he stated. “We cannot see anyrelaxation in sight.”
The German B2B market leader had benefitted this year from the air to ground/express toparcel trends, Preuss said, which he believed are permanent structural changes. DPD wanted toremain close to customers, introduce more innovative services such as MyDPD and reduce CO2emissions through sustainable transportation and delivery activities, he added.
Kai-Uwe Hanert, UPS Germany business development director, said that UPS is also feelingpressure on prices but would not “play this game”. Looking ahead, he said UPS believed there wouldbe “slight growth” in the German market next year. The company would benefit from rising expressdemand when the economy recovered but remained well-positioned at present with its express andstandard products, he pointed out.
Alexander Ferrier, TNT Express Germany director of operations and security, said TNT did notbelieve that the economy would be through the crisis next year. However, the Dutch operator waswell-placed with its express and road services, as well as high customer satisfaction levels, hestressed. Road transportation would continue to get stronger in the future, he added.
In a separate presentation, Franz-Joseph Miller, CEO of time-critical express operatortime:matters, highlighted the potential of the ‘special speed solutions’ niche market, whichis estimated to be worth €2.5 billion worldwide and with a 15% annual growth rate.time:matters, with revenues of €60 million and over one million shipments last year, is growing atabout 25% a year, he said.
In one of several customer presentations, Intersport board member Kim Roether underlined thekey demands of customers from their express and parcel delivery partners, including punctuality,reliability, speed, flexibility, pro-active notification of problems/delays, more efficientoperations and more track-and-trace for consumers. Intersport, a chain of sports goods retailers,has about 800,000 parcels a year in Germany and more than 3 million worldwide, he said.
In a discussion on ‘Green Logistics’, Keith Ulrich, head of the DHL Innovation Centre,criticised the lack of alternative fuel vehicles for the CEP sector. But Manfred Kuchlmayr, head ofcommunications for Iveco Germany, stressed that about 65% of the €120,000 price-tag for anelectric-powered 3.5 tonne delivery van came from high battery costs, and criticised in turn thelow level of battery production in Germany for such vehicles.
The controversial postal minimum wage was the topic of a debate between Andrea Kocsis, deputyhead of the Verdi union, and Ralf Wojtek, chairman of the conference co-organiser, the GermanExpress Industry Association (BIEK). Admitting that the mail sector “is not a growth market”,Kocsis defended the need for a minimum wage to prevent “dumping” salaries by private operators andsaid she wanted the present level of about €8/hour to be retained in the new collective agreementnecessary from May 2010 onwards.
Wojtek criticised that the minimum wage had led to 19,000 lost jobs among private competitorsand claimed that Verdi was seen as a Deutsche Post union rather than a union for all postal sectorworkers. In response, Kocsis said Verdi would soon have a works council at TNT Post Germany.
