International air cargo continued its relative recovery in September with a year-on-year decline of5.4% compared to 9.6% in August after double-digit drops since last year, the latest airline
traffic figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show.IATA said the apparent year-over-year improvement in demand is misleading. It is largely dueto comparisons with an exceptionally weak September 2008 when cargo traffic fell sharply by 7.7%.Seasonally adjusted statistics show a 1.4% fall in cargo volumes for September 2009 compared withAugust 2009. This reflects the pause seen in the economic recovery in the US and elsewhere in thepast few months.
Compared to the low point of December 2008, seasonally adjusted freight demand has improvedby 12%, but remains 17% below the early 2008 peak, according to the airline association.
Most of the regions saw improved demand conditions in September compared to August exceptLatin America and Africa. Middle Eastern carriers showed the strongest performance of any regionwith a 3.6% year-on-year improvement compared to 3.0% in August. Traffic is now down at -2.6%.Latin American carriers also reported growth of 1.8%, but this was a decline from the previousmonth’s growth of 3.9% leaving nine-month figures down by -12.7%.
Carriers in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America recorded improvements over Augustperformance, but remained in negative territory. In Europe, there was a month-on-month improvementfrom -14.5% in August to -13% in September. Traffic is 19.3% lower over the first nine months.
North American carriers saw a considerable improvement from -12.1% in August to -5% inSeptember with traffic down at -17.9% for the first three quarters of this year.
Asia Pacific carriers, representing 44% of the global freight market, saw year-on-year demandimprove from -9% to -3.1%. Traffic is now down at -17% for the first nine months. Improvements werebroadly in line with improved economic activity in each region.
African carriers’ cargo operations declined further into negative territory from -5.1% inAugust to -6.9% in September.
“It is far too early to call this a recovery. The worst may be over in terms of the fall indemand, but yields continue to be a disaster and costs are rising. The airline industry remainsfirmly in the red with a fragile business environment,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s DirectorGeneral and CEO.
Airlines continue to carefully manage capacity. Seasonally adjusted passenger capacity hasremained unchanged throughout the year while cargo capacity has edged up only slightly in the lasttwo months. Load factors have risen to pre-crisis levels of 50.8% which should help to correct thesharp fall in yields for cargo at –20%.
Rising costs are another concern, IATA reported. As airlines adjust capacity to match demand,aircraft are flying fewer hours raising non-fuel unit costs. At the same time, oil prices haverisen to above $75 per barrel (Brent) which is considerably higher than the S$43 per barrel levelat the start of the year.
