Shares of TNT, UPS, FedEx and DHL parent Deutsche Post World Net have fluctuated dramatically overthe last two months due to a mix of factors including takeover speculation, the impact of the
economic slowdown and rising oil prices, a CEP-Research analysis showed.TNT, UPS and FedEx ended August showing increases compared to the end of June after repeatedspeculation during July and August that UPS and FedEx were each in talks with TNT over a possibleacquisition. The reported deals followed the recent economic downturn and rising fuel costs thathave hit the demand for package deliveries and led to a revival of merger discussions.
TNT shares were up 13.29% to €25.50 as of August 29 compared to 26 June. TNT experienced themost dramatic rise and fall in July. After the Financial Times reported at the beginning of Julythat FedEx was in preliminary talks to acquire TNT, the company’s shares jumped more than 25% from€18.51 to €23.26 and kept rising in the next few days by nearly 40%. About two weeks later,however, it was another report from The Wall Street Journal about the end of the takeover talksthat made TNT shares fall again as much as 18 %. This represented the biggest drop since theinitial public offering in June 1998.
The two US integrators, FedEx and UPS, have also been impacted by the takeover rumours withtheir shares rising over the last two months, although other factors such as the US downturn andthe strong rise in fuel prices also played major roles in the share performance.
FedEx experienced a moderate share price increase of 5.71% as of August 29 compared to theend of June. Shortly after The Financial Times report about the possible acquisition, FedEx sharesjumped 8% in 3 days from $73.01 to $79.52. UPS shares rose in a similar way impacted by somereports in August saying it might consider buying TNT. As of August 29 compared to 26 June, UPSshares rose by 6.61% to $64.12.
DPWN shares were negatively impacted during the last two months by rising oil prices andworsening economic conditions as well as by the widespread reports about the restructuring of theDHL Express US business, and political opposition to the planned Wilmington hub closure inparticular. The company’s shares dropped by 4.98% to €15.85 as of August 29 compared to two monthspreviously.
