Air cargo volumes grew unexpectedly strongly in March and April as international shippers apparently tried to beat US tariff deadlines but could fluctuate dramatically in May amid gloomy economic forecasts and especially due to the end of US de minimis e-commerce imports from China.
As of May 2, most US imports from China and Hong Kong are now subject to a 145% tariff on their value. Cheaper products imported by postal and parcel carriers and valued at $800 or less, which were previously exempt from duties under the de minimis rule, are now charged at a slightly lower 120% tariff (or a $100 flat fee, rising to $200 on June 1).
As a result, experts are predicting dramatic changes in the volume of cross-border packages into the US, which have soared to about 1.35 billion shipments a year as e-commerce retailers such as Temu and Shein took advantage of the de minimis exemption.
Volatile times?
