Fuel surcharges for international air express shipments continued to fall in October with the exception of DHL which kept its US surcharge unchanged, CEP-Research analysis has shown.
In Europe, all the integrators reduced their surcharges this month. The UPS surcharge fell from 11% in September to 10.25% this month. The FedEx European surcharge also decreased from 10.5% last month to 9% in October and will go up again to reach 9.5% in November. DHL’s European surcharge fell by 1.5 percentage points from 11% in September to 9.5% in October. TNT reduced its European surcharge from 14.25% in September to 13.25% this month.
In the USA, DHL Express again left its surcharge unchanged at the exceptional 0% level, for the ninth month in a row. The FedEx surcharge dropped further to 1% for the period of Oct. 4 – Nov. 1, down from 2% in September. The UPS surcharge also fell from 3.75% last month to 3% in October. The TNT surcharge in the USA dropped to 4% this month, down from 5% in September and in August.
In Asia Pacific, all the four integrators reduced their surcharges as well. The FedEx surcharge went down from 8.5% in September to 7.5% this month. The UPS surcharge which was at the 9% level last month went down to 7.75% in October. The DHL surcharge also decreased from 11% to 9.5% this month, in the same way as the company’s surcharge in Europe, and it will remain on this level in November as well. TNT’s Asian surcharge dropped from 14.25% last month to 13.25% in October.
Global oil prices showed some ups and downs over the last month with a downward tendency over the last few days. WTI crude traded at $46.66 yesterday at the end of the day, similar to the $46.45 in the beginning of September. Brent crude traded at $49.24 at the end of yesterday, below the $50.50 over a month ago. These figures remain extremely low compared to July 2014 when Brent crude traded at $115 and WTI crude above $103.
Yesterday, oil prices rebounded following a solid increase in Chinese crude imports last month and a 1.4% increase over the year, and as some investors bargain-hunted following a 5% slump in oil prices on Monday. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global glut in crude oil will continue in 2016 with expected return of Iranian crude to the market while demand for oil is expected to slow down next year.
IEA said yesterday that the global demand will slow to 1.2 million barrels next year after rising to a five-year high of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2015. Meanwhile, Iran's production could reach up to 3.6 million barrels a day, up from 2.9 million barrels a day currently, adding to the glut of crude once international sanctions are terminated early next year.
"A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels are likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016," the agency stated.
The air express fuel surcharges for October reflect the respective oil price levels two months ago. The four integrators calculate their surcharges based on indices showing the previous month’s oil price level and announce them in advance for the following month. This results in a two-month time lag between the fuel price and surcharge change.
