Worldwide air freight volumes grew by just 1.2% in June, and by 3.5% in the first half of 2015, as global trade continued to weaken amid mixed economic trends in China, Europe and the USA, figures from IATA showed today.
The low growth in June continues a slowdown seen in previous months, with moderate growth seen in May (+2.1%) and April (+3.3%), which was well behind growth rates in the same period of 2014. The half-year growth figure of 3.5% compared unfavourably to an increase of 5.8% in the first half of 2014.
"The half-year report for air cargo is not encouraging. With growth of just 1.2% over June last year, markets are basically stagnating. Some carriers are doing better than others at picking up the business that is out there. But overall it has been a disappointing first half of 2015, especially considering the strong finish to 2014," said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Looking ahead, he commented: “The remainder of the year holds mixed signals. The general expectation is for an acceleration of economic growth, but business confidence and export orders look weak. Air cargo and the global economy will all benefit if governments can successfully focus on stabilising growth and stimulating trade by removing barriers.”
Regional performance varied widely in June, according to IATA. Asia-Pacific, North American and Latin American carriers reported year-on-year declines (-0.3%, -3.3%, and -1.6% respectively) while European carriers reported that markets were flat. This was offset by the strong performance of Middle Eastern (+15.3%) and African (+6.7%) carriers to keep growth in positive territory.
In the largest air cargo market, Asia-Pacific carriers saw a fall in FTKs of 0.3% in June compared to June 2014, while capacity expanded 4.0%. Growth for the year-to-date was 5.4%.
“The region has experienced a notable slowdown in imports and exports over recent months, and latest data shows emerging Asia trade activity down 8%. In addition to generally weak trade growth, the region is the most exposed to the China market where government policies are more focused on stimulating domestic markets,” IATA commented.
European carriers reported flat demand in June (0.0%) compared to a year ago and capacity rose 2.2%. Over the first half year, air freight traffic declined by 0.6%. “Improvements in Eurozone business confidence have not led to increased air freight demand, and consumer confidence has been hit by the Greek crisis,” the international airline association said.
In North America, airlines experienced a decline of 3.3% year-on-year and capacity grew 2.8%. Freight traffic dropped 0.4% in the first six months of the year. “The positive impact of a modal shift to air as a result of the West Coast ports strike has faded and economic performance, despite some improvement in the second quarter, is subdued,” IATA noted.
The general trend was once again bucked by Middle Eastern carriers which saw the strongest growth with demand expanding by 15.3%, and capacity rose 19.2%. Their growth for the year-to-date is running at 14%. Although some major economies in the region have seen slowdowns in non-oil sectors, economic growth remains generally robust, which is also helping to sustain demand for air freight, IATA pointed out.
African carriers are also doing well so far this year as regional trade holds up despite the under-performing Nigerian and South African economies. The region’s airlines increased freight traffic by 6.7% in June and by 4.8% in the first half-year.
In contrast, Latin American airlines reported a fall in demand of 1.6% year-on-year in June, while capacity expanded 3.7%. Their freight traffic is down by 6.9% so far this year. “Regional trade activity has grown in the first half of 2015, despite continuing weakness in Brazil and Argentina. Unfortunately this has not translated into stronger demand for air freight,” IATA pointed out.
