The German courier, express and parcel (CEP) market grew solidly last year, with mid-single-digit increases in volumes and revenues, driven by rising B2C and international business, and similar growth is expected again this year, according to a new study presented today.
The CEP market grew by 4.5% to a total of 2.8 billion shipments while revenues increased by 3.6% to €16.6 billion, the study by KE Consult for the country’s Parcels and Express Logistics Association (BIEK) found. The average shipment price dropped to €5.98, continuing a steady downward trend in recent years, according to the study, which is based on company figures, market data, reports and other sources.
BIEK chairman Florian Gerster told journalists, including CEP-Research, at a press conference in Berlin: “B2C is the main growth factor. The CEP market is going more and more towards the parcels segment since parcel services are more and more reliable, meaning that express services are often no longer needed. But express is also growing as well.”
The parcels market continued to outgrow the express and courier segments last year, and now represents nearly 83% of the market in volume terms and 53% by revenue. Parcel volumes increased by 5.1% to more than 2.3 billion items while revenues increased to €8.8 billion.
International shipments, which represent about 10% of total parcel volumes, were a key growth driver, increasing by more than 10%. There was no detailed breakdown between B2B and B2C shipments, although international B2C volumes are known to have grown faster than B2B.
Domestic parcel volumes increased by 4.6%. The number of domestic B2C parcels rose by 7%, which is in line with German e-commerce growth last year, and the segment now represents 54% of the German parcel market.
B2B parcel volumes were 2.2% higher according to the study, and the segment’s market share continued to drop, totaling 39% in 2014. The small C2C segment, representing 7% of the total parcels market, has barely grown in recent years, according to the study.
The German express market had total revenues of €3.95 billion last year while the courier sector accounted for a further €3.85 billion, according to the study. The combined express/courier volumes grew about 2%.
Author Klaus Esser, head of KE Consult, said: “Compared to last year’s forecasts, the results are about half a percentage point better than expected. So they are significantly better than expected.”
For 2015, the BIEK study predicts similar growth of 4-4.5% in volumes. Domestic parcel volumes are expected to rise about 3.5-4%, with B2C growing by up to 5% and B2B by up to 3%. Express and courier volumes are seen growing by up to 2.5%. The study did not make any revenue forecasts.
“The prediction has been confirmed by 5% growth in the first half of the year. Overall we will exceed three billion shipments for the first time,” Esser forecast.
In the longer term, average annual volume growth of 6.4% is expected for the next few years, leading to nearly 3.8 billion shipments in 2019. This is well ahead of the 3.6% average annual growth seen from 2000 to 2014, with the strong growth driven mostly by e-commerce as well as economic growth in Germany and an improving European economy.
Parcel volumes are predicted to grow by 6.6% a year while express/courier shipments would increase by 4.4%. The industry expects international shipments to grow strongly by 8.3% a year up to 2019.
