Air cargo volumes in September showed further signs of stabilising following several recentmonths of slow but steady growth, according to figures released today by the International Air
Transport Association (IATA), with global volumes showing a further 0.5% year-on-year growth.While this is slower than the 3.4% growth recorded for August, overall air cargo volumes are ata 25-month high, IATA reported, and steady increases in the size of the market since April havebeen supported by improvements in business conditions.
However, “the slow-but-steady global growth picture is coloured by significant regionalvariation” the airline association added. Asia-Pacific airlines experienced a 3.1% fall in cargoactivity compared to last September whereas carriers in the Middle East reported 9.9% growth.
“The story behind September’s performance is regional,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director generaland CEO. “The levelling-off of global volumes was a result of the growth rate in Europe and theMiddle East moderating after recent acceleration, while Asia-Pacific airlines saw a deepening ofthe market weakness.”
He said that at a global level, the September results were aligned with the organisation’sexpectations for an improvement towards the end of the year.
“All indicators still point to strengthening business confidence as we approach the finalquarter,” said Tyler. “That’s cause for cautious optimism. But the persistent cargo weakness whencompared to the strength of passenger markets is a signal for the industry to work at improving itsvalue proposition with programmes such as e-freight.”
A regional analysis shows that the 3.1% decline in freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) carried byAsia-Pacific carriers in September deepened the contraction experienced by the region’s carriers sofar this year to 2.1%. But IATA said the recent downward pressure from regional economic weaknessappeared to be easing, with China’s GDP growth picking up slightly.
Overall air freight capacity among Asia Pacific airlines was up by 1.3% in September, leavingload factors down around two percentage points at 55.5%.
European carriers reported FTKs grew 1.4% in September year-on-year, although the growth levelwas lower than the “robust’ 3.4% rise reported in August. Benefiting from the improvement in theEuropean economy, airlines in the region have carried about 30% of the rise in global volumes sincethe second quarter, and FTKs are now the highest they have been since mid-2011, IATA reported. Loadfactors, however, fell to 46% as capacity grew by 2.6%, expected to place further downward pressureon already-low air freight rates.
Cargo carried by North American airlines grew just 0.9% in September compared to a year ago, butthis does buck the declining trend seen so far this year (-1.1%). IATA said the prospects for UScarriers were “uncertain”, adding: “While business confidence started to improve in Q3, it remainsbelow the average seen at the start of the year, and the impact of the US government shutdown inOctober is not yet clear.”
Middle East carriers recorded strong growth in September, up 9.9%, but this was slightly belowthe average performance so far this year (+12.3%). However, IATA said the underlying trends for theregion are strong, with improving conditions in advanced economies expected to boost trade throughthe Gulf hubs, and trade volumes in the Middle East have shown solid momentum in recent months.
Latin American airlines continued to see solid growth in air freight volumes, expanding 3.9%year-on-year in September. The region has seen the strongest increase in trade this year,supporting the continued expansion in air freight demand.
Latin American carriers were also the only region to increase their cargo load factors inSeptember compared to a year ago, although the level overall is still below the global average.
African carriers’ FTKs fell 0.8% in September compared to a year ago, although for the year as awhole they are still in positive territory (+1.1%). This is in line with recent performance, IATAreported, with African freight growth tailing off after a strong start to the year. Capacity roseby 11.2%, the second fastest of any region, which pushed their cargo load factors down to just26.3%, almost 20 percentage points lower than the global average (45.1%).
As reported yesterday in CEP-Research, TNT Express this week said it had seen no signs yet of asignificant peak-season upswing in volumes and confirmed that the company’s two B747 freighterswere still up for disposal.
TNT, FedEx and UPS, like many general air cargo operators, have all reduced their exposure toweaker ex-Asia demand over the last two years by temporarily or permanently parking excess aircraftcapacity.
Air cargo carriers have reported volumes and rates on the transpacific market returning tostrength in the last few weeks, although Asia-Europe air freight prices are said to remain at “rock-bottom” levels.
