Double-digit growth in US retail e-commerce sales is expected to continue this year after a 15%rise to $186.2 billion in 2012 that was the strongest growth since before the recession and which
represented about 10% of overall retail sales in the world’s biggest economy, according to leadingorganisations.Digital data analyst comScore, which released the 2012 figure, also said that in Q4, 2012 onlinesales grew 14% to $56.8 billion, marking the first ever $50 billion quarter. The 15% growth foronline sales in 2012 contrasts with the National Retail Federation’s preliminary figure of amoderate 4.2% rise in overall US retail sales last year.
The strong e-commerce growth will continue this year, too, according to the National RetailFederation (NRF), which represents traditional and online retailers across the USA. Its digitaldivision Shop.org expects 9-12% growth in US online sales in 2013. This will again outpace overallUS retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) which the NRF seesincreasing by 3.4%.
The NRF’s subdued forecast follows the slightly weakened holiday season with holiday salesgrowing 3% in 2012 for retail overall and with an 11.1% increase in online sales during Novemberand December.
“What we witnessed during the holiday season is an indication of what we are likely to see in2013. Consumers read troubling economic headlines every day and look at their bottom lines at theend of the month, and they don’t like what they see,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Pushing fiscal policy decisions down the road will lead to even greater uncertainty, and willcontinue to impact consumers’ desire and ability to spend on discretionary items. TheAdministration and Congress need to pursue and enact policies that lead to growth and economicexpansion, or it could be another challenging year for retailers and consumers alike.”
“Retailers will compensate for the drag on household spending this year by managing inventoriesand focusing on providing value for their shoppers through unique promotions in stores and onlineand exclusive product lines,” he added.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added: “It will be interesting to see whether consumers willuse e-commerce more as they manage to both changing macroeconomics and technology. The greatestimpact that I see on online consumer spending this year: income and jobs aside, it has to beconsumer use of tablets. Tablet sales continue to grow – there are new models and formats, pricesare coming down, and tablets are just that much easier for product research and purchase thansmaller screen smartphones. In either case, mobile media is on the rise and consumers are spendingmore time on these devices.”
ComScore chairman Gian Fulgoni said: “2012 was a year in which – for the most part – e-commercecontinued to grow strongly, despite an uneven macroeconomic environment showing signs of recoverybut also cause for continued concern. With e-commerce growth rates consistently in the mid-teensthroughout the year, it is clear that the online channel has won over the American consumer andwill increasingly be relied upon to deliver on the dimensions of lower price, convenience andselection. The only real blemish on an otherwise outstanding year for e-commerce was a holidayseason that fell shy of initial expectations, apparently due to consumers’ fiscal cliff concerns.To the extent that this pullback was just a temporary shock and not a sign of underlying economicweakness, we are optimistic that 2013 will build on the momentum of the past year.”
The data analysis company pointed out that the fourth quarter of 2012 marked ‘the first ever $50billion quarter’ with sales rising 14% year-on-year to $56.8 billion. The 14% growth was driven bya 6% increase in the number of buyers and an 8% increase in spending per buyer. It also representedthe 13th consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth and a ninth consecutive quarter ofdouble-digit growth.
Overall, US retail e-commerce spending during the fourth quarter of 2012 reached 10% of thetotal US retail spending for comparable categories (excluding Food, Gas & Auto),representing a double-digit share for the first time.
The top-performing Q4 online product categories included Digital Content & Subscriptions,Consumer Electronics, Toys & Hobbies, Apparel & Accessories, and Books & Magazines,with each category growing at least 15% compared to the previous year.
The last year’s fourth quarter was boosted by the November – December holiday season as USconsumers spent more than ever before buying presents online for Christmas 2012 with onlinespending growing 14% to $42.3 billion during those two months. The increase, however, was slightlybelow expectations as consumers worried about the impact of the fiscal cliff on their finances.
