The UK, Brazil, Russia and India were the only countries to report an increase in mail revenueslast year among 17 major postal markets surveyed by UK communications regulator Ofcom.
Overall mail revenue fell by 1.5% across the 17 ‘comparator’ countries surveyed, ranging from a16.1% contraction in Poland to 9.4% growth in Brazil, 8.8% growth in Russia, a 6.6% increase inIndia and a 3.1% increase in the UK.
Ofcom’s International Communications Market Report 2012, which attempts to compare the UKcommunications market with those in France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland,Spain, Sweden, Australia, Canada, Japan, the US, Brazil, Russia, India and China, confirmed thatmail volumes continued to fall in 2011, declining on average by 2.3% across the 17 ‘comparator’countries.
Brazil and India were the only countries where volumes did not fall in 2011, while the largestdecline was in Poland (11.3%), followed by Italy (8.1%) and Spain (7.9%). The comparable figure forthe UK was 5.1%.
The UK, Italy and Spain have seen the largest declines in mail volumes over the last five fullyears, in percentage terms, with mail volumes in each falling by 25% from 2006 to 2011, accordingto the study.
Across all 17 comparator countries, mail volume has fallen by 18% since 2006, from 355 billionto 288 billion items. The largest absolute decline has been in the US, also by far the largestmarket, where the decline between 2006 and 2011 was 49 billion items, which equates to a 23% fallin volume.
In terms of the absolute number of items, the fall in the UK was larger than in any of the otherEuropean countries analysed in this report. In comparison to 2006, there are 5.4 billion feweraddressed items in the UK postal market, while France saw a drop of 2.21 billion items, Italyrecorded 1.65 billion fewer items, Spain recorded a 1.34 billion drop and the Netherlands a declineof 1.13 billion items.
Compared with the double-digit percentage drops among its European neighbours, Germany’s mailmarket fared relatively well, recording a total decline of just 6% in the five years to 2011, withvolumes dropping by 1.05 billion items. The only countries within this group of 17 surveyed marketswhere mail volumes increased over this five-year period were Brazil, Russia and China, with thelargest growth (12%) happening in the Russian market.
The largest decline in revenue in the last five full years, both in absolute and proportionalterms, has been experienced in the US market, where £5 billion (12%) of revenue has been lostbetween 2006 and 2011. In contrast, over this period, price increases in the UK have helped toreduce the impact of falling volumes on revenue. As a result, mail market revenue in the UK hasfallen by only 1.5% (£100 million) in the five years to 2011.
Mail revenue growth was seen in five of the 17 countries during this period. Canada reported a0.5% growth, while all the BRIC countries saw significant revenue increases, with India reportingrevenue growth of 32%, Brazil 37% and Russia 69%. The highest proportional growth was in China,where revenues increased by 86%. The largest actual growth was in Brazil, where revenues increasedby £1.3bn.
On the parcels side, consumers in the UK appeared to receive the highest number of parcels percapita among the countries surveyed, reflecting the advanced state of the UK’s e-commerce-generatedparcels market.
Thirty-four percent of consumers in the UK claimed to have received at least one large parcel inthe past month, higher than in any other country surveyed. This is comparable to Germany, where athird (33%) of consumers had received a large parcel in the past month.
Forty-six per cent of UK consumers said that they had received a small parcel in the past month,second only to France, where 53% claimed to have received a small parcel in the past month.Consumers in Italy were least likely to have received a parcel, with only 17% claiming to havereceived a small parcel and 13% saying that they had received a large parcel. In all of thecountries surveyed, consumers were more likely to have received a small parcel, defined as a parcelthat would fit through the letterbox, than a large parcel.
The proportion of consumers who claim to have received a parcel in the past month is reflectedin the value of the e-retail market in each country. In Italy and Spain, where the lowestproportion of consumers had received a parcel, the value of e-retail per head of population is alsolow. The value of e-commerce per head of population in 2011 in the UK is higher than in any of theother countries surveyed.
