Boeing has again scaled back its long-term air cargo growth forecast in response to weaker worldeconomic conditions and now predicts 5.2% average annual growth for the sector over the next 20
years.The US aircraft manufacturer predicted in its widely-cited biennal World Air Cargo Forecast2012-13 (WACF) released earlier this week that air cargo traffic will grow over the long termdespite current near-term market weakness and worldwide economic uncertainty. Growth would bedriven by world GDP growth, increasing international trade and more efficient aircraft andinfrastructure improvements that would reduce the cost of flying goods by air.
Two years ago, in its World Air Cargo Forecast 2010-11, Boeing predicted 5.9% average annualgrowth from 2010 until 2029. Looking back at recent historical air cargo traffic trends, Boeinghighlighted the sharp falls in 2008 (-3.2%) and 2009 (-9.6%), the strong 18.5% recovery in 2010 buta slight 1% fall in 2011 and a further 2% drop so far this year.
“More worrisome is the slowing long-term growth trend. Since 2001, world air cargo traffic hasonly grown 3.7% per year. The global economic downturn, rising fuel prices, and improving surfacetransport mode options have dampened air cargo growth,” the company commented. In contrast, aircargo had grown 6.7% a year on average over more than two decades from 1981 to 2004, it noted.
More optimistically, Boeing stressed the underlying long-term positive factors for air cargo.Long-term projected economic and international trade growth, the continuing globalisation ofindustry, increasing adoption of inventory-reduction strategies, and ongoing renewal of the worldfreighter fleet with more efficient capacity should help world air cargo traffic growth return to arate closer to historic norms, it stated.
Tom Crabtree, regional director, Business Development & Strategic Integration, BoeingCommercial Airplanes, said: “Current industry uncertainty has brought a disparity of viewpointconcerning the future of the air cargo business, but economic activity – particularly world grossdomestic product and industrial production – remains the key driver of the air cargo market.
“Over the long term, indicators such as GDP growth at 3.2% and the need for greater operationalefficiency will prevail in the marketplace. Air cargo is and will continue to be a vital tool forglobal businesses and commerce in the management of supply chains and bringing critical goods tomarket.”
Unsurprisingly, Boeing highlighted Asia as the key growth region for the future. Marketsconnecting Asia-Pacific would lead the industry in growth, with domestic China and intra-Asiatraffic experiencing the highest percentage traffic growth, at 8% and 6.9%, respectively, over the20-year forecast period.
North America-Asia (5.8%), Europe-South Asia (5.8%), Europe-Asia (5.7%) and Europe-Middle East(5.7%) also would be above the 5.2% world average, along with North America – Latin America (5.6%)and Europe – Latin America (5.3%).
In contrast, intra-North America traffic will only grow 2.3% on average and intra-Europe will beonly fractionally better at 2.4%, according to the WACF. The formerly dominant North Atlantic tradelane (Europe-North America) will grow by a moderate 3.5%.
In terms of shipment types, Boeing highlighted high-value goods and perishables as two coreareas where shippers “will continue to find value in the speed of air cargo”. On fuel costs, Boeingcautiously said that these “are expected to be volatile but are not anticipated to movesignificantly higher than current levels”.
Demand for freighter aircraft will continue to grow, according to Boeing. The world freighterfleet will increase to 3,198 airplanes from 1,738 by 2031, and large freighters will increase theirshare to 36% from 31% at present. About two-thirds of the new freighters will be convertedpassenger planes while the rest will be newly-built freighters, it predicted.
