International air cargo demand to and from Asia continued to decline in May with volumes carriedby the region’s airlines dropping 5.3% year on year, according to preliminary traffic figures from
the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA).Average international air cargo load factors for Asia Pacific carriers fell by 1.6 percentagepoints to 66.6% for the month, based on a 3% contraction in offered freight capacity, measured infreight tonne-kilometres (FTK).
Singapore Changi Airport also reported a 2.8% year-on-year decline in cargo traffic in May,contributing to a 1.3% decline in the five months of 2012, compared with the equivalent period lastyear.
Earlier this month, the region’s biggest cargo airport, Hong Kong International, reported a 1.1%increase in air cargo volumes in May, the first year-on-year rise since March last year, sparking abrief sense of optimism. The May growth at Hong Kong was driven primarily by a 3% year-on-yearincrease in exports, with cargo throughput to and from south-east Asia outperforming other keyregions.
However, Hong Kong airlines Cathay Pacific and Dragonair subsequently reported a less optimisticpicture, with their collective cargo and mail tonnages carried dropping 10.6% last month comparedto May 2011, while cargo and mail tonne-kilometres flown dropped by 15.3%. Capacity, measured inavailable cargo/mail tonne kilometres, decreased by 7.3%, leading to their combined cargo and mailload factor dropping by 5.9 percentage points. For the year to date, tonnages carried by the twosister airlines has declined by 10.7% against a capacity drop of 4.1%.
Cathay Pacific General Manager for Cargo Sales & Marketing, James Woodrow, commented: “Demand once again remained soft out of the key Hong Kong and Mainland China markets in May. Demandwas down on long-haul routes, particularly to Europe, though traffic within the Asia Pacific regionheld up well. We continue to manage capacity in line with demand, at the same time as developingnew markets where possible. In May we launched a new freighter service to Hyderabad in Indiafollowing on from the launch of services to Zhengzhou in central China in late March.”
Andrew Herdman, AAPA Director General, commented: “Air cargo markets remained weak amidst realconcerns about the eurozone, and further evidence of slowing growth, spreading to the majordeveloping economies. Air cargo traffic carried by Asian airlines declined by 5% in the first fivemonths of this year. It is worth reflecting on the fact that global air cargo volumes are stuck atlevels first seen five years ago, before the global recession.”
This contrasted with a relatively robust 8.7% growth in the number of international passengerscarried by Asian airlines, “reflecting positive consumer confidence, despite lingering concernsover the fragility of the global economic recovery”.
Looking ahead, Herdman said: “The positive trend in passenger demand growth has beenencouraging, and oil prices have moderated somewhat from a peak. Nevertheless, Asian carriers arestill braced for a challenging second half of 2012, in view of widespread competitive pressures,the continued weakness in air cargo markets, and unresolved concerns over the outlook for theglobal economy.”
The latest figures from the integrators indicate that express operators are experiencing similardeclines in their Asia volumes. FedEx said its average international priority (IP) daily packagevolume decreased 3% in the three months to 31 May, “driven by year-over-year declines from Asia”.
Despite the weak Asian air cargo figures for May, overall levels of exports in May from the keyChina market rose more than 15% year on year, a sharp improvement from April’s unexpectedly weakgrowth of just 5%. China’s commerce ministry yesterday said that anecdotal evidence indicated thatthe country’s export growth in June was matching the pace seen in May and would pick up in thecoming months, predicting that the country can meet its full-year target of boosting exports by10%, according to Reuters.
A ministry spokesman said that although the recovery trend was not yet clear, “we see somedesirable signs”. He said China may take measures to support the logistics industry as a way toboost consumption, but didn’t elaborate on this. Despite the apparent pick up in China’s overallexports in May, China’s export growth this year is running at half the pace of last year, weakenedby Europe’s debt crisis and anaemic US demand, the report added.
