B2C e-commerce sales to exceed €1 trillion next year

Global B2C e-commerce sales are set to exceed €1 trillion in 2013, a year earlier than forecastjust a year ago, after growing to €690 billion last year, according to a report published today by

The IMRG B2C Global e-Commerce Overview 2012 estimated that total e-commerce sales grew byalmost 20% last year, faster than anticipated in the first edition of its report, and predictedthat this growth rate would continue in the coming years. The growth of China’s e-commerce market,which more than doubled in size in 2011, was one of the reasons for the unexpectedly high recentgrowth rate.

The report confirmed that the US remains the world leader in total B2C e-commerce sales at €223billion, followed by the UK at €78.5 billion and Japan with €77.5 billion, although the UK is aheadin terms of per-capita annual online spending, averaging €2,124 per person, followed by theScandinavian countries.

Asia-Pacific is continuing to power ahead in terms of growth, with China’s e-commerce market, inparticular, rising over 130% in 2011. Other strongly growing markets include the emerging economicsuperpowers Brazil and Russia, which have seen e-commerce growing at around 35% a year, while somecountries in the Middle East have seen growth of around 50%.

The report’s author Aad Weening, Head of International at IMRG, told CEP-Research that China wasan exceptional case. Whereas Morocco had experienced growth of around 100% last year, this was froma low base of €37 billion and was unlikely to continue at such a high rate.

“China is different,” he said. “I would expect these kinds of growth rates to continue in China– maybe not 130%, but perhaps 70%, 80%, 90% or 100% could continue next year.” Weening said Chinawas going through a period of tremendous market changes, including moving more towards B2C onlinesales as barriers are removed and more and more retailers move to set up B2C online options.

“Also the number of users is growing, confidence in e-retail is growing, and the amount ofdisposable income is continuing to grow,” he added. “The economy is still growing very rapidly –maybe not quite at the same rate as it has been, but when that growth rate has been 9%-10%, it isstill growing a very high rate compared with mature markets like the US, Europe and Japan.”

Weening told CEP-Research he expected Russia and Brazil to continue to show growth rates of30-35% for the next few years, while other fast-growing markets included Turkey and Poland, whichgrew by around 30% last year and were expected to continue along a similar path. “Turkey may groweven faster,” he added. “Retail is doing very well there.”

The mature markets in the world such as US, UK and Japan are expected to continue to seeslightly slower growth, but still in double-digits, between 10-15%. France, Italy, Spain, Russia,Turkey and Poland are expected to be the fastest-growing markets in Europe, while IMRG forecastssubstantial growth in Latin America, led by Brazil and Mexico, and the Middle East, led by Israeland the UAE.

As well as looking at the overall global market, the report also focuses on 15 of the mostdeveloped and most interesting up-and-coming e-commerce countries in detail, identifying trends,issues and opportunities in each. In addition to the well-established markets, the report examinesthe e-commerce potential in the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa) aswell as the MIKT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea and Turkey), “which have excellent economicfutures and will in the coming years be amongst the leaders in internet and e-business” IMRG said.A separate report focusing solely on the BRICS countries will be published by IMRG later thismonth.

The number of internet users at the end of 2011 was estimated to be around 2.2 billion and isforecast to reach close to 3.5 billion in just a couple of years, around 50% of the world’spopulation.  IMRG said that as the number of internet users grows and users get more and moreconfident in purchasing online, the number of e-shoppers is set to grow rapidly.

Weening added: “The future of e-retail is global and with the inevitable slowing of growth inseveral major markets in the likes of North America and Europe, it is important for businesses tounderstand where the future opportunities will be. The country profiles in this report take in toconsideration a range of factors in assessment of the potential for the development of thee-commerce markets there; online is now becoming an integral part of any country’s economy andshould be considered so.

“Worldwide we are increasingly seeing trust and confidence in purchasing online growing andgovernment and private initiatives brought in to support the development of the global digitaleconomy.”

He said postal and delivery operators were obviously at different stages of development indifferent parts of the world, creating certain barriers to e-retail and cross-border e-retail,although these were being gradually lifted. “In some countries, we do not have the same postaladdress systems that we have in places like Europe,” he added. “But that will follow. Andorganisations like the Universal Postal Union (UPU) are doing their very best to improve thesesituations, and as these things are resolved we would expect to see more cross-border e-retaildeveloping.”

The full IMRG B2C Global e-Commerce Overview 2012 can be purchased and downloaded on the IMRGwebsite.