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Integrator shares on downward course in February

TNT

The share prices of FedEx, Deutsche Post DHL and TNT dropped slightly last month, while UPSshares showed a moderate increase compared to January, CEP-Research analysis shows.

The UPS share price, which declined slightly in the first week of March, was the best performerof the four integrators in February, rising 3.04%. It closed at $73.80 on February 28, up from$71.62% on January 31. On February 1, the company unveiled a 44% rise in operating profits in thefinal quarter of 2010 and confidently predicted record profits this year, driven by higher marginsand international growth. The results and outlook drove the share price up 4% in one day to $74.59,and remained flat at roughly that level for the next 10 days.

Following a few small increases in the second half of the month, UPS shares gradually declinedat the end of February. In the middle of the month, UPS CFO Kurt Kuehn stressed that the companywas maintaining its profits outlook for this year, despite FedEx’s warning that profits would behit by a mix of severe weather and rising oil prices. Other developments during the month includedthe international expansion of the company’s services, including UPS Express Freight; fastertransit times for its LCL services; UPS Mobile App for iPhone; and UPS Capital expansion in LatinAmerica.

FedEx’s stock ended last month down 0.33% at $90.02, down from $90.32 on 31 January. During thefirst half of February, its shares showed some ups and downs, with a slight upward tendency. But onFebruary 15, FedEx warned that heavy snow in the US and Europe and soaring oil prices would causeprofits for the December 2010-February 2011 third quarter to slip back. The company said its Q3earnings had been negatively impacted by an estimated $0.25 per diluted share, due to loss ofrevenue and increased expenses resulting from severe winter storms and higher-than-expected fuelprices. Despite this negative forecast, shares went up 5% in four days, only to fall again by 9% infive days. The shares remained at that lower level until the end of the month. Positivedevelopments in February included the launch of new early-morning delivery services and thecompletion of the acquisition of the logistics, distribution and express businesses of Indianbusiness AFL and its affiliate, Unifreight India.

Deutsche Post DHL’s share price declined slightly, by 0.75%, during the month, to €13.29 onFebruary 28, from €13.39 on 31 January. Shares rose steadily in the first half of February, despitesome minor dips, but then declined gradually. During the month, the company announced an importantinvestment of $22.5 million in expansion of its US air hub facility at Cincinnati/Northern Kentuckyairport to meet the growing demands of international shipper customers. In addition, DHL Freightstarted operating a new 48,000 sqm logistics centre in Switzerland, which will serve as a major hubfor cargo transport in Europe with the DHL Euroconnect product.

TNT’s share price declined by 3.69% in February, the worst performer of all the four mainintegrators’ stocks, settling at €19.04 on 28 February (down from €19.77 on 31 January). Its sharesshowed a slight decline in the first week of February, but rose again in the second week. On 21February, the company reported a slump in its Q4 2010 profits due to lower mail volumes in theNetherlands and various one-off effects, as well as the severe weather conditions. Although itsfull-year profits were an improvement compared with 2009, the results caused its share price tofall, with the downward trend continuing until the end of the month.

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