Global air freight growth continues to slow in September

International air cargo showed significantly slower growth in September with a 14.8%year-on-year improvement compared to 19.6% in August, according to figures published by the

IATA said September marked the second consecutive month of seasonally adjusted declines infreight demand (-1.0% in August, -2.1% in September). Freight volumes are 6% below their May peakwhich is equivalent to pre-crisis levels.

In contrast to passenger traffic, which expanded by 2.1% thanks to significant growth inSeptember, freight markets contracted by an equal 2.1% providing a mixed picture for industryperformance.

While freight markets were expected to weaken towards the end of the year, the decline inSeptember was larger than anticipated, IATA explained. “Consumer and business confidence remainsweak in many parts of the world. Re-stocking lifted freight markets earlier in the year, but thishas not been followed by spending to solidify the economic recovery.”

Compared to September 2009, freight capacity has increased by 11.9%, below the 14.8% increase involumes, pushing cargo load factors to 52.4%.

“It is good news that the recovery in passenger markets continued in September. But the freightnumbers are worrying. Freight activity has fallen 6% since May’s post-crisis peak. What we see inair cargo markets is inevitably reflected in the broader economy,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’sDirector General and CEO. As international air cargo accounts for 35% of the value of goods tradedinternationally, it is a leading indicator of economic activity.

In regional terms, European carriers showed the weakest growth compared to other regions with an11.1% increase in freight demand compared to the same month in 2009 which is still slightly abovethe lower 9.6% growth in August. North America experienced slightly higher growth last month with13%, down from the 21.2% recorded in August, which leaves the region 1% below pre-recessionlevels.

Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 15% increase in freight demand in September over the previousyear marking a significant decline from the 22.3% growth recorded in August. This took the region’scarriers back to the pre-recession levels of early 2008 and, with their 44% market share,contributed the most to the global drop in freight demand.

Middle East carriers recorded the strongest growth in September somewhat compensating for thedeclining trend with a 24% increase over previous-year levels. Even through this is less than the24.2% recorded in August, when adjusted for seasonality, this represents an increase of 1.4% overAugust levels. Moreover, when compared to pre-recession levels, the region’s carriers are carryinga third more traffic than they did prior to the recession.

Bisignani commented: “The industry’s situation is volatile. Passenger traffic represents aboutthree quarters of the industry’s revenues. While September’s passenger growth is reassuring, theaccelerating decline of air freight, including in Asia, is an early indicator of some turbulenceahead,” said Bisignani.

“Government actions can impact the sustainability of the recovery. Austerity measures willdampen demand. When combined with new or increased taxation, as we have seen in Germany and the UK,the challenges are even greater,” said Bisignani. “Governments must understand that air transportis an economic catalyst. Last year, we saw that a €312 million departure tax in the Netherlandscost the Dutch economy €1.2 billion. Further taxing the industry makes no sense when the focus ofgovernments should be on making the recovery sustainable,” he concluded.