Deutsche Post is staying cautious on hopes that mail volumes might improve this year on the backof an economic recovery following last year’s recession, board member Jürgen Gerdes told
CEP-Research in an interview.Speaking on the sidelines of the company’s presentation of its new ‘internet letter’ product atthe CeBIT fair in Hanover, he also played down the likelihood of strong competition emerging inEuropean mail markets following full liberalisation next January. Gerdes was unable to disclose anybusiness figures prior to the announcement of the company’s 2009 results on March 9.
“Some volumes will come back when the crisis is over but no one has experienced this scale ofcrisis,” Gerdes commented, explaining that this situation makes it very difficult to forecastvolume trends.
Asked whether the recession or electronic substitution was having a bigger effect on decliningmail volumes, the Deutsche Post mail and parcels chief noted that e-substitution is reducingphysical mail volumes by 1-3% a year. In dialogue marketing, the recession is having a greaterimpact than the switch to electronic communications, he said. Invoicing is currently more stable,however.
On the topic of future competition in liberalised European mail markets, Gerdes pointed out: “Nowhere in the world do you have examples of a second successful operator (alongside theincumbent). It would be different if we (the postal market) were growing.” The mail market wascharacterised by high fixed operating costs and a larger number of players thus just reducedprofitability levels, he added.
Addressing the parcels market, Gerdes stressed that DHL was the overall German market leader andhad successfully introduced innovations such as the Packstations in the B2C market. He declined tocomment on the status of the planned European B2C service, which the company has been testing inAustria and Switzerland in cooperation with national postal operators and DHL Express.
On the German parcel B2B market, Gerdes commented: “We are working on a new production concept.”The sale of the domestic parcel businesses in the UK and France did not impact on DHL ParcelGermany since these businesses had been part of DHL Express, he pointed out.
