The international air express market should recover this year after a 6.9% volume decline in 2009,according to a new study from aviation consultants Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG).
In its newly-released International Air Freight and Express Industry Performance Analysis2009/10, the US-based company said last year was the most difficult ever for the $87 billion globalair freight industry but there are encouraging signs for a recovery in 2010.
“Indications are that international air freight for 2009 will show a decline of nearly 15%compared to the results for 2008,” said Robert Dahl, ACMG Managing Director, “making 2009 by farthe worst year ever for the industry in terms of year-over-year performance.” Since those commentslast month, IATA has released 2009 figures showing a 10.1% drop in international air cargo trafficlast year, while figures from airports association ACI show a 10.3% fall in international airfreight volumes.
Even the express companies have not been immune to the negative impacts of the recession, butthe 6.9% decline found by ACMG in the volume of international express shipments was much lesssevere than the overall air freight/express industry shrinkage. International express volume fellfor the first time in 2009, down 6.9% to 1.997 million shipments per day, according to the ACMGstudy.
UPS now has the largest share of the international air express market at 25.2%, ACMG said.The package giant is followed closely by FedEx and DHL, with TNT and the Express Mail Service (EMS)of the world’s postal operators rounding out the top five.
Despite gains by the express companies, however, airlines and forwarders retain control of88.6% of the tonnage of air cargo handled in the international market. On a revenue basis thenon-express carriers in the combination and all-cargo groups together have a 47.6% market share(about $41.4 billion), with freight forwarders having an additional 17.6% ($15.3 billion). Leadingairlines in Asia generate nearly one-third of their revenue from cargo.
Looking ahead to prospects for this year and beyond, the aviation experts said there isgrowing evidence that the air freight market has started to recover in recent months. “Movingforward, ACMG expects that air cargo traffic will grow 7%-10% in 2010, and there is a good chancethat we will recover to the pre-recession peak by 2012,” Dahl said.
Despite the downturn at the end of 2008, combined annual revenue for participants in theinternational air cargo market (airlines, forwarders, and express companies) remained at $87billion for the full year, the study found. However, the total is expected to decline significantlywhen full-year 2009 results are assessed, as air freight yields (price per pound of freightcarried) have also been down by double-digit amounts due in part to significant reductions in fuelsurcharges in 2009. As a result, many airlines are reporting drops of 35%-40% in freight revenue.
ACMG also found that about 15% of the global fleet of freighter aircraft was taken out ofservice during the 2009 downturn, and that most of the parked freighters are older units which willnot return to service. The availability of excess belly space in passenger aircraft alsocontributed to the weak freighter market. However, despite the market contraction there were fewcancellations of freighter orders.
“It is too early to say for sure whether the recovery is sustainable, and whetherglobalisation trends so important to the international air freight industry will resume theirhistoric growth pattern as the world’s economy rebounds,” said Dahl. “We will be monitoring thesefactors closely in the months ahead, as they will determine how quickly the international airfreight industry returns to its 2007 peak.”
