The world’s international airlines expect a further decline in air cargo volumes and yields thisyear, according to a survey by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The association
has already predicted a 5% drop this year following a 1.5% decline in 2008.About 70% of airlines expect the weak trend of last year to continue in 2009 with loweryear-on-year volumes, just over 26% predict stagnating volumes and only 4.3% predict growth incargo traffic, IATA’s “Airline Business Confidence Index” for January 2009 showed.
Over the last three months, 56% of airlines have recorded lower cargo volumes, 17% had stablelevels and 26% still had growth rates, according to the survey. The number of survey respondentswas not stated.
Moreover, cargo yields are likely to fall this year, according to 78% of survey respondents,while 17% expect stable yields and again only 4.3% predict higher yields. Over the last threemonths, cargo yields declined for 43% of airlines, were stable at 35% and improved for 22%.
In terms of passenger volumes, which will impact on the cargo business in terms of availablebellyhold capacity, 44% of airlines predict lower passenger traffic, 33% expect similar figures tolast year and 22% foresee growth.
More positively, airlines expect lower costs due to the sharp fall in fuel costs. Views weremixed over profitability, with 50% expecting worse results this year, 25% predict stable profitsand as many as 25% expect improved financial results.
In mid-December, IATA predicted that international air cargo traffic could decline by 5% in2009, which would be the worst annual drop since 2001, following a drop of 1.5% in 2008. Prior to2008, the last time that cargo declined was in 2001 when a 6% drop was recorded.
Earlier this month, the association announced that international air cargo traffic haddropped by a dramatic 13.5% in November 2008 following a 7.9% decline in October. IATA has 230member airlines which comprise 93% of scheduled international air traffic.
