World air cargo will return to growth, and recover to average annual growth of 5.8% over the nexttwo decades, according to an in-depth new Boeing forecast. The express sector is predicted to
continue winning market share by outpacing general air freight growth.Air cargo traffic will grow over the long term despite the current near-term market weaknessand worldwide economic uncertainty, Boeing said in its World Air Cargo Forecast 2008/2009. Worldair cargo growth will expand at a 5.8% annual rate over the next 20 years, with traffic triplingfrom from 193.6 billion RTKs in 2007 to more than 595.9 billion RTKs in 2027, it predicted.
Air freight, including express traffic, will average annual growth of 5.9% percent through2027, and will also triple to 585.1 billion RTKs over the next two decades. In contrast, air mailtraffic will grow much more slowly, averaging only 2.1% annual growth over the same period.
This would represent a clear recovery on three years of weak growth, Boeing noted. World aircargo traffic grew 5.1% in 2007, which followed 3.2% growth in 2006 and 1.7% growth in 2005, makingthe past three years the weakest growth period for the industry since the first Gulf War,1990-1992.
“Our research tells us that long-term economic growth, freighter fleet renewal and moderatingjet fuel prices will stimulate air cargo traffic growth,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president,Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “These positive prospects will prevail despite theindustry’s concerns about our current economic challenges. World GDP is projected to average justhigher than 3% during the next 20 years. Asian production fundamentals – including abundant rawmaterials and low-cost labour – remain solid, and China will remain a source of strong economicgrowth with substantial industrialisation and related investment.”
Asia’s air cargo markets will continue to lead the world air cargo industry in average annualgrowth rates, with domestic China and intra-Asia markets expanding 9.9% and 8.1% per year,respectively. The more mature North America and Europe markets reflect slower and thuslower-than-average traffic growth rates
The international express sector will continue to grow faster than the overall air cargomarket, although at a slower rate than in the past, Boeing said. Over the past decade,international express has grown at more than twice the rate of total worldwide air cargo traffic,averaging 11% annually. Since 2000, however, annual growth has been somewhat slower at 8.7%.
“As businesses continue to expand beyond domestic or close regional markets, theinternational express sector will continue to grow, albeit at more sustainable, long-term rates,”Boeing predicted.
As a proportion of total international air cargo traffic, international express expanded from4.1% in 1992 to 13.2% in 2007. The average international express shipment size grew from 2.7 kg in1992 to 5.7 kg in 2007, further bolstering the overall express component of international airfreight traffic.
The distinction between express and general air cargo continues to blur, the aircraftmanufacturer commented. Traditional providers are expanding their time-definite offerings,and express carriers, freight airlines, and postal authorities are consolidating. Ultimately, theair cargo customer benefits from increased service options and lower prices as market pressurebrings competing products into the market, it concluded.
