The worldwide cargo demand growth remained sluggish in January due todownward trends in many leading sectors. Air cargo lost market share to shipping, there was afreight slump of European airlines and the continuous impact of the slowing US economy.
In January, international cargo demand grew by 4.5%, according to thelatest monthly traffic figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This waslargely unchanged from the 4.7% year-on-year growth recorded in December.
Air freight recorded a steady year-on-year growth of 4.5% runningcontrary downward trends in many leading indicators including semi-conductor shipments andmanufacturing business confidence levels.
Air cargo has been growing at half the rate of global trade expansion,indicating a loss of market share to shipping which has benefited from faster ships and cheaperfuel costs. While
aviation fuel rose 300% between 2002 and the first half of 2007, residual fuel for shipsincreased by 200%. During the last half of 2007 the gap narrowed with the sharp increase inprices.
Both modes are experiencing a 500% increase in fuel costs compared to2002. The result is that air cargo has clawed back some lost market share, masking any earlyimpacts from the downturn in the US economy, IATA further reported.
“January traffic results show that we could be at a turning point. Amonth’s data is not enough to define a trend, however, the sharp shift in demand growth patternsmakes it clear that the US credit crunch is negatively impacting air travel,” said GiovanniBisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
In contrast to the moderate cargo demand in January, the larger freightmarkets generated continued growth of 6.5%, up from 6% in December, boosted by the boomingeconomies in China and India.
European airlines, however, saw freight slump to 0.4%. Most of the airfreight is carried on long-haul markets where business for the European airlines has suffered fromthe strong Euro.
“This is an unusual situation for the industry. Asia outside of Japanis looking strong, even as the US economy weakens. This highlights the need for the air transportindustry to globalise. The outdated bilateral system and national ownership rules will prevent theindustry from responding as a normal business to economic shifts. Airlines cannot diversify risk,so the parts of the industry will see the impact of the US credit crunch with very little buffer.This must change,” Bisignani added.
